Most early-stage products don’t flop because they’re totally off. They fail because they’re slightly wrong—at exactly the points that matter.
Maybe the customer is real, but the pain isn’t urgent. Or maybe the solution is desirable, but the price point doesn’t make sense. These misfires compound quickly when you build too fast.
The lesson: In the early days, being 80% right still breaks the business if the wrong 20% is left untested.
We don’t need perfect confidence. We need smart tests—early.
One reliable method: combine Assumption Mapping with the Riskiest Assumption Test (RAT).
This gives you: